# Automatically set Opportunity Confidence based on pipeline status
Overview
Every time an Opportunity moves into a new status, you probably want its Confidence (the probability used to calculate your weighted pipeline value) to update automatically. For example, any deal that reaches Negotiations should jump to 80% — no manual edits required.
Close makes this easy with Workflows.
What you'll be able to do
Once this is set up, Close will automatically update an Opportunity's Confidence percentage the moment it moves into a specific status. This keeps your forecasting accurate and frees your team from manually updating Confidence on every deal.
Quick reminder on terminology: In Close, the field is called Confidence (visible on the Opportunity itself). It's also sometimes referred to as "probability" in reporting contexts. The two terms mean the same thing — Confidence drives the Expected Value calculation (
Value × Confidence = Expected Value).
Before you start
You'll need:
- Access to Workflows
- Permission to create and edit Workflows
If your plan doesn't include Workflows, you can replicate this behaviour using a third-party automation tool like Zapier — set it to listen for Opportunity status changes in Close and update the Confidence field accordingly.
How it works
Close Workflows don't support branching logic, so you'll create one Workflow per Opportunity status you want to map to a Confidence value. It sounds like more setup, but each Workflow is quick to build and easy to maintain.
Setting up a single status-to-confidence Workflow
- Go to Workflows in your left sidebar and click + New Workflow.
- Set the Trigger to Opportunity is updated.
- Under the trigger settings, add a condition to filter for the specific status:
- Field: Opportunity Status
- Operator: is
- Value: (your target status, e.g. "Negotiations")
- Add a Step: choose Update Opportunity.
- Set the field Confidence to your target value (e.g.
80). - Give your Workflow a clear name like
Set Confidence: Negotiations → 80%. - Click Activate.
Repeat these steps for every status you want to map.
Example status-to-confidence mapping
| Opportunity Status | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Qualification | 20% |
| Demo Scheduled | 40% |
| Proposal Sent | 60% |
| Negotiations | 80% |
| Verbal Commit | 90% |
Each row above becomes its own Workflow.
Avoiding conflicts between Workflows
If you have other Workflows that also update Opportunities, make sure they don't step on each other:
- Each Workflow should have a clear, specific status condition so only one fires at a time.
- If two Workflows both match the same Opportunity update, the last one to run wins — and your Confidence could be overwritten unexpectedly.
- Use descriptive names (
Set Confidence: Demo Scheduled → 40%) so it's easy to audit your Workflow list later.
What about existing Opportunities?
These Workflows only fire when an Opportunity is updated going forward. Opportunities already sitting in a status when you activate the Workflow won't be updated automatically.
FAQ
Can I use a single Workflow for all my statuses?
Not currently. Close Workflows don't support branching or if/else logic, so one Workflow per status is the way to go. The upside is that each Workflow stays simple, transparent, and easy to update individually.
Will this override a Confidence value a rep has set manually?
Yes — whenever the trigger fires, the Workflow will overwrite whatever Confidence is currently set. If your team relies on manually adjusting Confidence within a status, this setup may not be the right fit, or you may want to limit Workflows to specific statuses only.
What's the difference between Confidence and Expected Value?
Confidence is the percentage you assign. Expected Value is what Close calculates automatically: Opportunity Value × Confidence. You can see both in your Pipeline View and Opportunity reports.
I don't have access to Workflows — what are my options?
If Workflows aren't available on your plan, a third-party tool like Zapier or Make can listen for Opportunity status changes via the Close API and update Confidence accordingly. You may want to loop in a developer or your Close admin to set that up.