---
title: "Automatically set Opportunity Confidence based on pipeline status"
slug: "automatically-set-opportunity-probability-based-on-pipeline-status"
updated: 2026-03-11T19:01:10Z
published: 2026-03-11T19:01:10Z
---

> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://help.close.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Automatically set Opportunity Confidence based on pipeline status

## Overview

Every time an Opportunity moves into a new status, you probably want its **Confidence** (the probability used to calculate your weighted pipeline value) to update automatically. For example, any deal that reaches **Negotiations** should jump to **80%** — no manual edits required.

Close makes this easy with **[Workflows](https://help.close.com/docs/workflows)**.

---

## What you'll be able to do

Once this is set up, Close will automatically update an Opportunity's Confidence percentage the moment it moves into a specific status. This keeps your forecasting accurate and frees your team from manually updating Confidence on every deal.

> **Quick reminder on terminology:** In Close, the field is called **Confidence** (visible on the Opportunity itself). It's also sometimes referred to as "probability" in reporting contexts. The two terms mean the same thing — Confidence drives the **Expected Value** calculation (`Value × Confidence = Expected Value`).

## Before you start

You'll need:

- Access to **Workflows**
- Permission to create and edit Workflows

If your plan doesn't include Workflows, you can replicate this behaviour using a third-party automation tool like **Zapier** — set it to listen for Opportunity status changes in Close and update the Confidence field accordingly.

## How it works

Close Workflows don't support branching logic, so you'll create **one Workflow per Opportunity status** you want to map to a Confidence value. It sounds like more setup, but each Workflow is quick to build and easy to maintain.

### Setting up a single status-to-confidence Workflow

1. Go to **Workflows** in your left sidebar and click **+ New Workflow**.
2. Set the **Trigger** to **Opportunity is updated**.
3. Under the trigger settings, add a **condition** to filter for the specific status:
  - Field: **Opportunity Status**
  - Operator: **is**
  - Value: *(your target status, e.g. "Negotiations")*
4. Add a **Step**: choose **Update Opportunity**.
5. Set the field **Confidence** to your target value (e.g. `80`).
6. Give your Workflow a clear name like `Set Confidence: Negotiations → 80%`.
7. Click **Activate**.

Repeat these steps for every status you want to map.

### Example status-to-confidence mapping

| Opportunity Status | Confidence |
| --- | --- |
| Qualification | 20% |
| Demo Scheduled | 40% |
| Proposal Sent | 60% |
| Negotiations | 80% |
| Verbal Commit | 90% |

Each row above becomes its own Workflow.

---

## Avoiding conflicts between Workflows

If you have other Workflows that also update Opportunities, make sure they don't step on each other:

- Each Workflow should have a **clear, specific status condition** so only one fires at a time.
- If two Workflows both match the same Opportunity update, the last one to run wins — and your Confidence could be overwritten unexpectedly.
- Use descriptive names (`Set Confidence: Demo Scheduled → 40%`) so it's easy to audit your Workflow list later.

## What about existing Opportunities?

These Workflows only fire when an Opportunity is updated going forward. Opportunities already sitting in a status when you activate the Workflow **won't be updated automatically**.

## FAQ

### Can I use a single Workflow for all my statuses?

Not currently. Close Workflows don't support branching or if/else logic, so one Workflow per status is the way to go. The upside is that each Workflow stays simple, transparent, and easy to update individually.

### Will this override a Confidence value a rep has set manually?

Yes — whenever the trigger fires, the Workflow will overwrite whatever Confidence is currently set. If your team relies on manually adjusting Confidence within a status, this setup may not be the right fit, or you may want to limit Workflows to specific statuses only.

### What's the difference between Confidence and Expected Value?

**Confidence** is the percentage you assign. **Expected Value** is what Close calculates automatically: `Opportunity Value × Confidence`. You can see both in your Pipeline View and Opportunity reports.

### I don't have access to Workflows — what are my options?

If Workflows aren't available on your plan, a third-party tool like **Zapier** or **Make** can listen for Opportunity status changes via the Close API and update Confidence accordingly. You may want to loop in a developer or your Close admin to set that up.

---

## Related articles

- [Workflows](https://help.close.com/docs/workflows)
- [Opportunity Pipelines & Statuses](https://help.close.com/docs/opportunity-statuses)
- [Opportunities](https://help.close.com/docs/opportunities)
- [Opportunity Pipeline View](https://help.close.com/docs/opportunity-pipeline-view)