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# Automatically set Opportunity Confidence based on pipeline status

> Use Workflows in Close to update an Opportunity's Confidence when it moves into a new status, with an example mapping and tips to avoid conflicts.

## Overview

Every time an Opportunity moves into a new status, you probably want its **Confidence** (the probability used to calculate your weighted pipeline value) to update automatically. For example, any deal that reaches **Negotiations** should jump to **80%** — no manual edits required.

Close makes this easy with [**Workflows**](/feature-guide/workflows).

---

## What you'll be able to do

Once this is set up, Close will automatically update an Opportunity's Confidence percentage the moment it moves into a specific status. This keeps your forecasting accurate and frees your team from manually updating Confidence on every deal.

> **Quick reminder on terminology:** In Close, the field is called **Confidence** (visible on the Opportunity itself). It's also sometimes referred to as "probability" in reporting contexts. The two terms mean the same thing — Confidence drives the **Expected Value** calculation (`Value × Confidence = Expected Value`).

## Before you start

You'll need:

* Access to **Workflows**
* Permission to create and edit Workflows

If your plan doesn't include Workflows, you can replicate this behaviour using a third-party automation tool like **Zapier** — set it to listen for Opportunity status changes in Close and update the Confidence field accordingly.

## How it works

Close Workflows don't support branching logic, so you'll create **one Workflow per Opportunity status** you want to map to a Confidence value. It sounds like more setup, but each Workflow is quick to build and easy to maintain.

### Setting up a single status-to-confidence Workflow

1. Go to **Workflows** in your left sidebar and click **+ New Workflow**.
2. Set the **Trigger** to **Opportunity is updated**.
3. Under the trigger settings, add a **condition** to filter for the specific status:
   * Field: **Opportunity Status**
   * Operator: **is**
   * Value: *(your target status, e.g. "Negotiations")*
4. Add a **Step**: choose **Update Opportunity**.
5. Set the field **Confidence** to your target value (e.g. `80`).
6. Give your Workflow a clear name like `Set Confidence: Negotiations → 80%`.
7. Click **Activate**.

Repeat these steps for every status you want to map.

### Example status-to-confidence mapping

| Opportunity Status | Confidence |
| ------------------ | ---------- |
| Qualification      | 20%        |
| Demo Scheduled     | 40%        |
| Proposal Sent      | 60%        |
| Negotiations       | 80%        |
| Verbal Commit      | 90%        |

Each row above becomes its own Workflow.

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## Avoiding conflicts between Workflows

If you have other Workflows that also update Opportunities, make sure they don't step on each other:

* Each Workflow should have a **clear, specific status condition** so only one fires at a time.
* If two Workflows both match the same Opportunity update, the last one to run wins — and your Confidence could be overwritten unexpectedly.
* Use descriptive names (`Set Confidence: Demo Scheduled → 40%`) so it's easy to audit your Workflow list later.

## What about existing Opportunities?

These Workflows only fire when an Opportunity is updated going forward. Opportunities already sitting in a status when you activate the Workflow **won't be updated automatically**.

## FAQ

### Can I use a single Workflow for all my statuses?

Not currently. Close Workflows don't support branching or if/else logic, so one Workflow per status is the way to go. The upside is that each Workflow stays simple, transparent, and easy to update individually.

### Will this override a Confidence value a rep has set manually?

Yes — whenever the trigger fires, the Workflow will overwrite whatever Confidence is currently set. If your team relies on manually adjusting Confidence within a status, this setup may not be the right fit, or you may want to limit Workflows to specific statuses only.

### What's the difference between Confidence and Expected Value?

**Confidence** is the percentage you assign. **Expected Value** is what Close calculates automatically: `Opportunity Value × Confidence`. You can see both in your Pipeline View and Opportunity reports.

### I don't have access to Workflows — what are my options?

If Workflows aren't available on your plan, a third-party tool like **Zapier** or **Make** can listen for Opportunity status changes via the Close API and update Confidence accordingly. You may want to loop in a developer or your Close admin to set that up.

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## Related articles

* [Workflows](/feature-guide/workflows)
* [Opportunity Pipelines & Statuses](/feature-guide/opportunities/opportunity-statuses)
* [Opportunities](/feature-guide/opportunities)
* [Opportunity Pipeline View](/feature-guide/opportunities/opportunity-pipeline-view)